BALLOON PLT MAKES A 'LAST CHANCE' LNDG AS WINDS ALOFT VARY FROM WX FORECASTED.

Narrative

AFTER RECEIVING AN UPDATED WX FORECAST FROM SAN DIEGO FLT SVC; AND RELEASING SEVERAL PLT BALLOONS; A LAUNCH SITE WAS SELECTED THAT WOULD FAVOR A 45 MIN FLT INWINDS PREDICTED TO BE 7-10 KTS FROM A N WESTERLY DIRECTION. TARGETED LNDG SITES WERE OPEN FIELDS 7 MI SE. ONCE AIRBORNE; WINDS WERE CLOCKED VIA GND REF TO BE CLOSER TO 20 KTS AND FROM A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT FORCING FLT BEYOND PLANNED LNDG SITES INTO RESIDENTIAL AREAS. NO TERMINAL FORECAST WAS AVAILABLE FROM FLT SVC AS MIRAMAR DID NOT RPT; BUT IN FLT; TRENDS WERE INDICATING WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N FURTHER MOVING THE FLT PATH INTO POPULATED AREAS. A DECISION WAS MADE TO BEGIN FINDING A SUITABLE LNDG SITE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AFTER XING MAJOR PWRLINES IN RANCHO PENASQUITOS. AFTER TARGETING A POSSIBLE LNDG SITE AND DSNDING TO 250 FT AGL FOR APCH TO LNDG IN A S EASTERLY DIRECTION; SHIFTING WINDS CAUSED THE FLT PATH TO BE ALTERED ENOUGH TO ABORT THE FIRST LNDG ATTEMPT. NEXT AVAILABLE LNDG OPTION WAS SELECTED AND AGAIN ABORTED DUE TO THE PROX TO RESIDENTIAL AREAS. CREW WAS MOVED TO E SIDE OF INTERSTATE 15 AS THE NEXT TARGETED LNDG SITE WAS LOCATED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEXT AVAILABLE LNDG SITE HAD 2 OTHER BALLOONS LNDG AT IT AND IT WAS ASSUMED THAT PREVAILING WINDS WOULD LIKEWISE TAKE ME IN THAT SAME DIRECTION. AGAIN UPON DSNDING TO LNDG ALT; THE FLT PATH AGAIN WAS SHIFTED TO THE N FORCING AN ABORT OF THE TARGET SITE. ONE MORE SITE WAS SELECTED AND AT THIS TIME A RPT MADE TO THE CREW THAT THIS WOULD BE A 'RIP-OUT' LNDG AS THE NEXT TARGETED LNDG AREA WAS SMALL AND BEYOND THIS SITE LIED A SMALL RESIDENTIAL AREA AND THEN A RIDGE OF HILLS; BEYOND WHICH WERE AREAS UNFAMILIAR AND DEEMED UNACCESSIBLE FOR CREW. RIPPING OUT OF THE TOP PANEL IN A BALLOON EFFECTIVELY FORCES LNDG BY DEFLATING THE BALLOON AT TOUCH DOWN. IN OTHER WORDS THIS WAS THE LAST AVAILABLE LNDG SITE AND THIS WOULD BE THE LAST ATTEMPT TO LAND. FINAL DSCNT WAS DELAYED BY A LIGHT STANDARD IN THE FLT PATH AND AS SOON AS THIS WAS CLRED A FINAL APCH WAS MADE WITH A TOUCH DOWN IN THE TARGET FIELD AND FINAL STOP ON THE ROAD BORDERING ON THE E. THE FIELD; NOT THE ROAD WAS THE TARGETED LNDG SITE. LCL POLICE WERE ON HAND TO STOP TFC (MANY OTHER BALLOONS HAD FLOWN INTO THIS AREA) AND WERE SOMEWHAT AGITATED BY ALL THE COMMOTION CAUSED BY THE LNDG BALLOONS. NO DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES OR THE BALLOON OCCURRED AND NO INJURIES TO ANY PERSONS ON THE GND OR PAXS IN THE BALLOON OCCURRED. A TERMINAL FORECAST FROM MIRAMAR MIGHT HAVE CHANGED THE OUTCOME OF THE FLT BY INFORMING OF A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THERE BY CHANGING THE LAUNCH POINT. THE BIGGEST FACTOR INVOLVED IN THIS INCIDENT WAS THE LARGE ERROR IN FORECASTED WINDS ALOFT AND ACTUAL CONDITIONS ONCE IN FLT. IF THE FORECASTED WINDS ALOFT HAD BEEN CLOSER TO WHAT WAS ACTUALLY THERE HAD BEEN KNOWN; THE FLT WOULD HAVE BEEN SCRUBBED AND PAXS REBOOKED TO A DIFFERENT DAY.