History of Flight
On October 13, 2012, at an undetermined time, a tailwheel-equipped Piper PA-18-150 airplane, registration N444LZ, went missing and is presumed to have crashed between Soldotna and Palmer, Alaska. The student pilot, who also owned the airplane, is presumed to have received fatal injuries, and the airplane is presumed to have been destroyed. The flight was conducted as a visual flight rules cross-country personal flight under 14 CFR Part 91. Dark night conditions likely prevailed at departure, and no flight plan was filed. The flight is believed to have originated from Soldotna Airport at 0137, en route to the private Wolf Lake Airport in Palmer.
An Alaska State Trooper reported that the missing airplane was one of two that arrived at Soldotna Airport on the afternoon of October 12. The pilots parked in the transient area and planned to stay overnight before returning to Palmer. The trooper learned that both pilots visited a local bar, and the missing pilot left in a taxicab around midnight.
The pilot of the second airplane, a longtime friend, stated that after arriving, they attended a hockey game and then visited several bars. Just after midnight on October 13, security personnel asked the missing pilot to leave a bar, and the friend escorted him to a taxicab, instructing the driver to take him to a local hotel.
A bar security guard reported that around midnight, he escorted an individual matching the pilot's description to a taxicab after a disturbance, noting the individual was very intoxicated.
A taxicab driver reported that two individuals placed an intoxicated person (later identified as the pilot) in his cab and asked to be taken to a hotel. The pilot refused to exit the hotel, then asked to return to the bar before insisting on going to Soldotna Airport, stating he intended to sleep in the airplane. The driver took him to the airport, where the pilot exited but was not seen heading toward an airplane.
Radar data analysis by the National Radar Assessment Team and the U.S. Air Force 84th Radar Evaluation Squadron revealed that at about 0137, an unidentified aircraft believed to be the missing airplane departed Soldotna Airport. The track initially went southeast, then turned west, northeast, with erratic turns, speed, heading, and altitude changes. It proceeded northwest over Cook Inlet, then northeast. The last radar position was recorded at about 0248 over mid-channel of Cook Inlet, approximately 30 miles north of Soldotna, while in a descent.
Pilot Information
The pilot, age 27, held a student pilot certificate and a third-class medical certificate issued on April 11, 2011, with no limitations. No personal flight records were found; FAA records indicated 15 total flight hours, all within the previous 6 months. On his medical application, he stated he had never been convicted or arrested for driving while intoxicated (DWI), but Alaska State Troopers reported a DWI conviction in June 2002.
Meteorological Information
The nearest weather reporting facility, Kenai Municipal Airport, about 25 miles south-southwest of the last radar position, reported at 0153: wind 020° true at 3 knots, visibility 10 statute miles, clear skies, temperature 25°F, dew point 23°F, altimeter 29.11 inHg. Dark night conditions prevailed.
Communications
No communications were reported with the missing airplane.
Wreckage and Impact Information
The presumed crash site is Cook Inlet, a saltwater inlet off the Gulf of Alaska. At the last known location, water depth is less than 100 feet at mean low tide. Several glacier-fed rivers terminate in the inlet, causing water visibility often less than 1 foot due to turbidity. The inlet has strong tidal currents.
Medical and Pathological Information
The sole occupant has not been recovered, and no medical or pathological information is available.
Search and Rescue / Survival Aspects
After the airplane did not arrive in Palmer, family and friends reported it overdue. The FAA issued an alert notice on October 14 at 0923 Alaska daylight time. An extensive search was conducted by the Civil Air Patrol, Alaska State Troopers, Alaska Air National Guard, U.S. Coast Guard, and volunteers. The official search was suspended on October 21. Family and volunteers continued searching.
No emergency locator transmitter (ELT) signal was received. The airplane was equipped with an older 121.5 MHz ELT, which was no longer monitored by satellites after February 1, 2009; installation of 406 MHz ELTs was voluntary. Search personnel reported that survival time in water below 40°F is typically less than one hour.