During the initial climb after takeoff the float-equipped airplane encountered a downdraft and was unable to climb. Rising terrain and trees necessitated a downwind turn. During the turn, the airplane continued to descend, and the airplane impacted swampy terrain adjacent to the floatplane base. The pilot attributed the downdraft to either the large wildfire-induced cumulus clouds 1/2 mile east of the airport, or the winds gusting over rising terrain from the southwest.