What happened
On 12 February 2023, Tromsø Airport, Langnes, experienced a series of significant weather-related aviation incidents. During this single day, six separate incidents were reported by major operators, including SAS, Widerø and Norwegian. The events included a SAS aircraft veering off the runway edge due to strong crosswinds and a slippery surface, and another SAS flight that had to perform a go-around after encountering severe icing that caused intense engine vibrations, leading to a mayday call. Additionally, three Widerø aircraft experienced lightning strikes and severe icing during approach, while a Norwegian aircraft encountered both lightning and a wind shear warning just prior to landing.
The investigation
Following these events, the Norwegian Safety Investigation Authority (NSIA) launched a thematic investigation to determine if climate change was making winter operations in Northern Norway more demanding. The investigation involved a comprehensive meteorological analysis conducted by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET) and included reviews of incident reports from various operators, including the Air Ambulance Service and the Norwegian Armed Forces. The scope was to identify any statistically significant shifts in weather patterns that could increase operational risks in the region.
Findings
Analysis of meteorological data from 1991 to 2023 revealed that while there is a trend of more low-pressure systems following a southerly zonal track, there is no general historical trend indicating a deterioration of winter weather conditions specifically for aviation in Northern Norway or Svalbard. The investigation found that the primary drivers of challenging weather remain the location and intensity of large-scale synoptic low-pressure systems. While substantial year-to-year variability exists and is expected to continue, the data does not support the hypothesis of a long-term climatic decline in weather stability for the region's airspace. However, the investigation did note that local and regional changes may occur, and potential shifts in weather patterns for Southern Norway were identified.
Safety action
To enhance flight safety and adapt to potential local changes, the NSIA has issued safety recommendations focused on three areas: increasing knowledge of local airport conditions, utilizing high-resolution 'on-demand' forecasts to anticipate challenging weather, and improving access to pilot reports (AIREPs).