Overview
On October 10, 1999, a Cessna 172M (serial number 17267320) operated a visual flight rules (VFR) local sightseeing flight from Bancroft, Ontario. Approximately 15 minutes after takeoff, the pilot encountered deteriorating weather and decided to return to Bancroft. The pilot, who held a valid instrument rating, climbed into cloud rather than continue VFR in unsuitable conditions. Using the aircraft's automatic direction finder tuned to a local broadcast radio station, the pilot flew in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) at 2,600 feet above sea level near the aerodrome, waiting for weather improvement. After about one hour in solid IMC, he climbed to 3,000–4,000 feet and contacted Toronto Radio for updated weather. With fuel running low and no weather improvement, he attempted to land at Bancroft.
Sequence of Events
The pilot descended to 300–400 feet above ground level before regaining visual reference in an area with one-quarter mile visibility in fog. He turned south to set up for a visual approach to runway 12. Turning to what he estimated as final approach, he encountered rising terrain. The aircraft struck trees and crashed on a wooded hillside about one mile west of the aerodrome at 1106 eastern daylight saving time. The pilot and two passengers evacuated with minor injuries, and the aircraft was consumed by post-crash fire.
Weather Information
Prior to departure, the pilot checked weather online, observed conditions during his drive, and called Kingston flight service station for forecasts for Muskoka and Peterborough. The only weather information available for Bancroft was the area forecast (FA) and the automated weather observation system (AWOS) report, which the pilot did not check. The AWOS showed light winds and 100 percent relative humidity. Forecasts for Muskoka and Peterborough indicated low visibility in fog throughout the morning, with improvement expected after 1100. The pilot's first flight of the day (departing 0815) encountered acceptable VFR conditions, with a ceiling at 1,500 feet agl and visibility of eight to ten miles. After landing, he filed a pilot report indicating better than forecast weather.
Findings and Contributing Factors
The pilot was certified and qualified for the flight, holding a valid Group 3 instrument rating but with limited practical IFR experience (6.2 hours actual IMC, 65 hours simulated, 24 hours in simulators). He had filed an IFR flight plan only once. He did not carry IFR publications; his portable GPS was unreliable, leaving the ADF as the sole navigation aid. The Bancroft Aerodrome has no instrument approach aid. The Canada Flight Supplement and Enroute Low Altitude Chart depict 3,000 feet asl as the minimum safe altitude in the area. The pilot held at 2,600 feet asl, below that minimum. While holding, he did not attempt to change to an IFR flight plan or climb above the cloud layer, where VMC conditions existed at 6,000–8,000 feet asl. His decision to attempt a visual approach after breaking cloud was hampered by low ceiling and limited visibility.
The investigation identified that the pilot did not use all available weather information (he omitted the AWOS report), lacked preparation for rapidly deteriorating weather, and made inappropriate decisions during the flight.
Probable Cause
The pilot crashed on a wooded hillside as a result of his attempt to do a cloud-breaking procedure using a local broadcast radio station for navigation and to descend below safe altitude in IMC conditions to set up for a visual approach. Contributing to the occurrence were the pilot not using all available weather information, his lack of preparation for a rapidly deteriorating weather situation, and his inappropriate decision making.