What happened
On 25 May 2017, a Piper PA-28R-201 Cherokee Arrow III, registration G-CEOF, was conducting a private flight from Oban to Carlisle. After a delay due to weather, the aircraft departed Oban at 1025 hrs. While the pilot had previously flown a similar route through the area, the flight path on this occasion deviated from the original plan, moving inland toward the Crinan Canal.
At 1040 hrs, the pilot relayed a position report via another aircraft, stating the plane was over Lochgilphead at 1,000 ft. However, as the aircraft proceeded south down Loch Fyne, radar data indicated a steady descent. The aircraft's altitude dropped to 750 ft near Tarbert, followed by an increased rate of descent. The final radar contact occurred at 1050 hrs, at an altitude of approximately 150 ft. The aircraft subsequently struck the water approximately two miles north-east of Skipness. Both the pilot and the passenger sustained two fatal injuries.
The investigation
The AAIB investigation examined wreckage, radar data, and meteorological records. Recovered footage from a passenger's camera showed the aircraft's instruments functioning normally during a previous flight. Radar analysis confirmed the aircraft's descent and the timing of its disappearance from surveillance.
Meteorological data from the Met Office and local ferry logs confirmed that the area was experiencing widespread fog and low stratus clouds, with visibility in some locations as low as 200 m. The investigation also reviewed the pilot's flying experience and the aircraft's maintenance history, finding the G-CEOF to be well-maintained and the engine and instruments to be in working order. The investigation also noted that the aircraft was not equipped with lifejackets or a life raft.
Findings
- The aircraft was flying in conditions that had deteriorated below the legal minimums for Visual Flight Rules (VFR).
- The pilot was not qualified to fly in Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC).
- The aircraft was flown into a fog bank, likely due to the pilot's reliance on external visual cues and the difficulty of maintaining height over a calm sea surface without a clear horizon.
- The pilot's use of a mobile application for navigation may have increased workload and reduced the frequency of instrument scans.
- The descent may have been an attempt to maintain visual contact with the water or shoreline, which ultimately led the aircraft into the sea.