Preflight and Departure
The pilot obtained a weather briefing before departure and was advised of a SIGMET forecasting severe turbulence below 18,000 feet, strong up/downdrafts, strong surface winds, and wind shear near mountains and in passes. The aircraft departed with full fuel tanks and approximately 400 lbs of cargo.
En Route and Arrival
The en route portion of the flight was handled routinely, according to ARTCC. During arrival, the pilot contacted the airport unicom for a landing advisory. A King Air pilot, arriving at about the same time, asked the Aerostar pilot if he was making a full stop; the Aerostar pilot replied affirmatively. The King Air pilot subsequently lost sight of the Aerostar and began a 360° turn. He asked the Aerostar pilot to advise his position. Shortly thereafter, the Aerostar pilot transmitted three mayday calls.
Impact and Investigation
Witnesses reported that the aircraft nosed up and entered a steep right bank just before impact. No preimpact mechanical failure or malfunction was found. Examination revealed that most of the cargo was in the baggage compartment, which was limited to 240 lbs, and could have moved the center of gravity well beyond the aft limit. The elevator trim was found in the full nose-down position. The pilot, the sole occupant, was killed.
Probable Cause
The official probable cause, as determined by the investigation, is as follows:
Occurrence #1: Loss of control in flight during the approach phase (VFR pattern, base leg/base to final). Findings include: (1) Inadequate preflight planning/preparation by the pilot in command, (2) Aircraft weight and balance exceeded by the pilot in command, (3) Light condition at dusk, (4) Reduced visual lookout by the pilot in command, (5) Diverted attention by the pilot in command, (6) Aircraft handling not maintained by the pilot in command, and (7) Uncontrolled stall by the pilot in command.
Occurrence #2: In-flight collision with terrain/water during an uncontrolled descent.