Airbus forecasts Asia-Pacific growth despite supply chain and geopolitical pressures

Airbus expects Asia-Pacific to remain the fastest-growing region for fleet growth over the next two decades, and says geopolitical tensions and persistent supply chain constraints have not significantly affected demand or deliveries.

Anand Stanley, the manufacturer's president for Asia Pacific, spoke in Hong Kong on 15 September. Demand has not softened, he said, and short-term growth is substantial. Customers are strongly willing to take delivery of aircraft, and the increase is not confined to the region.

Airbus's regional market outlook projects about 19,120 new passenger aircraft deliveries there over 20 years, roughly 45% of its global total. More than 80% are narrowbodies, with widebodies making up the rest.

Most of those aircraft will expand the region's fleets rather than replace older ones. Replacement accounts for about a third of the deliveries. Airbus bases the forecast on economic fundamentals: the middle-income population in Asia-Pacific is projected to grow by more than 1 billion by 2045, and trips per person will more than double over the same period.

Airbus's global forecast, published in July, points to demand for 42,060 new passenger aircraft through 2045. Of these, 19,820, or around 47%, are for replacing older aircraft, a higher share than the company forecast a year earlier. Francois Cabaret, Airbus's head of global market forecast, attributed the larger replacement figure to bigger mature markets such as the United States.