Pilot reported safety concerns related to inadequate staffing that could result if employees take leave in order to not comply with the company's vaccine mandate.

Narrative

My general safety concern is that Company's daily operation has been pushed beyond the airline's actual logistical capacity. I believe that the recent route system expansion was not well thought out logistically; and is now creating an unsafe chain of events that increases the likelihood of a significant aviation mishap. In addition to an already strained route system; I believe that the recent decision to require vaccinations for all employees will only compound (Company)'s already significant personnel shortfall. Many employees will choose to be placed on unpaid leave just before the busy Christmas and New Year Holiday travel season rather than be forced to receive a vaccination that they do not want based on their sincerely held beliefs or cannot take because of personal medical concerns. Meanwhile; these same employees are expected to show up to work between now and (date) and perform as if their livelihoods are not being threatened. I believe that the situation that Company finds itself in today is very similar to the situation that NASA found itself in just prior to the launch of the Challenger in 1986.The chain of decision making errors could have been broken at many points leading up to that ill-fated launch; which I watched live on television. Unfortunately; the poor decision making chain was not broken; and people died as a result. My hope is that Company will learn from history; identify the very real and present threats to our operation; and balance the appropriate barriers against these threats to ensure that Safety of our Customers (both external and internal) comes first.Company must reduce its daily operation to something that is logistically feasible and can handle the fluctuations that are to be expected in a route system of that size and scope. The Company must plan for the additional reduction in personnel at the beginning of Month as a result of its vaccine requirement and policy. The Company should also explore its options regarding the recent Federal Government mandates for vaccination requirements of companies engaged in federal contracts. Did the Federal Government breach its contracts when it unilaterally changed the terms of said contracts?