SMA ENCOUNTERS FOUL WX AND ELECTRICAL FAILURE WHILE IFR.

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THE PROB WAS AN UNFORECASTED CEILING AT MY DEST (HEBER SPRINGS; AR: HBZ) AND OVER 100 MI IN ALL DIRECTIONS HBZ. BEFORE TKOF FROM ATLANTA-PDK; THE WX BRIEFER (AT 1-800- WXBRIEF) TOLD ME CURRENT CONDITIONS AT LIT FT (50 MI FROM HBZ) WERE 1000 SCATTERED; MEASURED 15000 OVCST; VISIBILITY 7 MI. THAT WAS AT APPROX XA20Z. LIT WAS GIVEN AS 16-18Z; 1500 SCATTERED; VISIBILITY 4-6 MI. AFTER 18Z; 3000 SCATTERED. NONE OF THIS WAS CORRECT; INCLUDING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. IT WASN'T EVEN CLOSE. THEY HAD A 1600-1900 FT CEILING OVER MOST OF ARKANSAS THAT DIDN'T CLR UNTIL 26 HRS LATER. WBOUND FROM ATLANTA; I WAS SOON FLYING OVER A SOLID UNDERCAST (TOPS AT 4100 FT) AS PREDICTED. TUPELO WAS 2000 OVCST; FOR EXAMPLE. AS I APCHED AND PASSED MEMPHIS; I EXPECTED TO SEE HOLES OPENING UP IN THE CLOUDS. OF COURSE THEY NEVER MATERIALIZED. I CAN UNDERSTAND HOW A FORECAST CAN BE WRONG; BUT NOT CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE A HUGE PROB; ESPECIALLY FOR A CFII. I WOULD SIMPLY AIR-FILE IFR AND SHOOT THE NDB-5 APCH AT HBZ; WHICH IS WHAT I DID (FILE). THE PROB AROSE WHEN APPROX OVER THE GQE VOR (100 MI E OF HBZ) I FOUND THAT MY ALTERNATOR HAD FAILED. I IMMEDIATELY SHED THE LOAD ON THE BATTERY BY TURNING OFF ALL EQUIP EXCEPT THE XPONDER (I WAS UNDER FLT FOLLOWING) AND ONE COM RADIO. I RPTED THE PROB TO CTR AND SAID I WOULD LIKE TO GET DOWN NOW (WHILE THE BATTERY WAS WORKING) RATHER THAN LATER. ALL THE WHILE I AM UNDER THE IMPRESSION THAT THE WX IS BETTER TO THE W. AFTER ALL IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY IN LITTLE ROCK AND FORECAST TO IMPROVE; RIGHT? HE CLRED ME DOWN TO 3100 FT; AND WE AGREED I WOULD SHOOT THE HBZ NDB-5. I ADDED I WOULD DO SO IF THE BATTERY HELD UP (OBVIOUSLY). DURING THE DSCNT; THE CTLR SAID HE LOST RADAR CONTACT. MINS LATER I HEARD MY LAST XMISSION FROM HIM. THE BATTERY WAS DYING. THE L FUEL GAUGE WENT FROM 9 DOWN TO 5 IN A FEW MINS. NO FUEL WAS BEING BURNED FROM THAT TANK. THE BATTERY COULDN'T EVEN PWR THE FUEL GAUGE. I BEGAN TIMING THE FUEL BURN MORE CLOSELY. I REASSESSED THE SIT: A GOOD ENG; 1 1/2 HR OF FUEL REMAINING; AND A TOTAL ELECTRICAL FAILURE. I KNEW I WAS OVER THE FLAT RICE FIELDS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH NO TALL BUILDINGS AND FEW TWRS. BEFORE THE RADIO FAILED; A PLT ON A LIT-JBR RTE RPTED NO VMC NEARBY. I EXERCISED MY EMER AUTH AND VACATED 3100 FT TO GET BELOW THE CEILING. I BROKE OUT AT 1600 FT. I FOUND UNITED STATES HWY 67 AND FOLLOWED IT S TO SEARCY AND LANDED SAFELY AT M07 UNDER AN 1100 FT CEILING. INSPECTION REVEALED A BROKEN ALTERNATOR BELT.