ACR IS DISPATCHED INTO KNOWN WX WITHOUT PROPER FUEL RESERVES.

Narrative

THE SITUATION UNFOLDED WHEN I NOTICED PRECIPITATION RETURNS APPEARING ON MY ACFT SITUATION DISPLAY JUST TO THE W OF THE DIRECT RTE FROM ABERDEEN; SD; TO JAMESTOWN; ND. WHILE THE RADAR WAS INDICATING PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST PART -- UP TO SAY; LEVEL 3; THERE WAS A THREATENING-LOOKING AREA SE OF JAMESTOWN I REALLY DIDN'T LIKE. A QUICK CHK OF MY PLOT INDICATED THAT THE ACFT WOULD BE AIRBORNE MOMENTARILY. THINKING TO AT LEAST CONSULT WITH THE CREW ABOUT A POSSIBLE UP-FUEL; I WAS ABLE TO REACH THEM OVER THE COMPANY FREQ. THE ACFT HAD BEEN RAMPED TO 1800 LBS; ESSENTIALLY ENOUGH FUEL TO MAKE THE TRIP; HOLD OFF JAMESTOWN FOR 20 MINS; AND LAND. THE PNF INFORMED ME THEY WERE JUST GETTING OFF THE GND AND WERE UNABLE TO COMMUNICATE AT JUST THAT INSTANT. I WAS ABLE TO REESTABLISH CONTACT WITH THE CREW SHORTLY AFTER MY ASD INDICATED THEY WERE ALOFT. I BRIEFED THEM ON WHAT BOTH MY ASD AND THE ABERDEEN NEXRAD WERE SHOWING FOR WX: ISOLATED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION; PARALLEL TO AND JUST W OF THEIR LINE OF FLT; MOVING E TO ENE. I ALSO POINTED OUT A CELL MEASURING PERHAPS 5 MI IN DIAMETER; JUST SE OF JAMESTOWN ALSO MOVING OFF TO THE E. THIS CELL INITIALLY APPEARED AS AN AREA OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION THAT SOON BEGAN RETURNING LEVEL 4 TO LEVEL 5 ECHOES. IT ALSO FEATURED TOPS OF AT LEAST 35000 FT. ONCE I HAD ORIENTED AND BRIEFED THE CREW ON WHAT I SAW; AND I OBTAINED CONFIRMATION FROM THEM THAT THEIR AIRBORNE RADAR WAS PAINTING THIS SAME SITUATION; WE AGREED THAT THE FLT COULD PROCEED BY PICKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CELLS. BOTH SCREENS INDICATED CLR WX JUST TO THE W OF THIS ACTIVITY. I ADVISED THE CREW THAT SHOULD THEY PAINT ANYTHING THEY DIDN'T LIKE; A BRIEF DEV TO THE W WOULD PUT THEM BEHIND THE WX; AND THAT AN APCH INTO JAMESTOWN FROM THE SW SHOULD BE EASILY FEASIBLE. WHEN THE FLT WAS APPROX TWO-THIRDS THE DISTANCE FROM ABERDEEN TO JAMESTOWN; MY ASD UPDATED. NOW THERE WERE 3 CELLS IN THE JAMESTOWN VICINITY. MY FLT WAS HEADING DIRECTLY TOWARD AN AREA THAT WAS SHOWING 35000 FT TOPS; THE CELL JUST S OF JAMESTOWN HAD SLID OFF TO A POS SE OF THE DEST; BUT WAS NOW INDICATING 40000 FT ECHO TOPS AND PROJECTING HAIL. I CONTACTED THE FLT AND DESCRIBE THE LOCATION AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THESE 2 CONVECTIVE PHENOMENA; AND THEY VOICED THEIR INTENTION TO CONTINUE PICKING THEIR WAY THROUGH WHAT THEY WERE PAINTING. AT ABOUT THAT POINT I OVERHEARD THEM CALL THE STATION 'IN-RANGE;' AND THEY RPTED THEY EXPECTED TO TOUCH DOWN WITH 1400 LBS FOB. THE DUTY MGR THEN INTERROGATED ME ABOUT THE FLT'S FUEL SITUATION; AND IN EFFECT DEMANDED THAT I PERFORM AN ANALYSIS BASED ON WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE FLT HAD TO RETURN TO ABERDEEN. I RESPONDED THAT GIVEN THE COMPUTER'S BURN FIGURES; THE AIRPLANE COULD ACTUALLY LAND IN ABERDEEN WITH ITS RESERVE SUPPLY INTACT BASED ON THE COMPUTER'S NUMBERS. IF THE CREW'S FUEL RPT WAS ACCURATE -- AND I HAD NO WAY TO KNOW WHETHER IT WAS OR IT WASN'T -- THEY COULD ACTUALLY END UP ON THE GND IN ABERDEEN; SHOULD IT COME TO THAT; WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A HUNDRED LBS OVER THAT. DURING THE FLT I HAD ALSO HAD AT LEAST 2 PHONE CONVERSATIONS WITH STATION PERSONNEL IN JAMESTOWN -- AT ONE POINT I ASKED ABOUT THE WX; AS THE RADAR SHOWED A SMALL TSTM EITHER ON OR VERY CLOSE TO THE FIELD; AND THE WOMAN WHO ANSWERED TOLD ME THEY WERE GETTING JUST OCCASIONAL DROPS OF RAIN. HOWEVER; THAT ALL BECAME MOOT; AS THE FLT LANDED UNEVENTFULLY IN JAMESTOWN. HAVING REVIEWED AND RE-REVIEWED THIS INCIDENT IN MY OWN MIND; IT'S CLR TO ME THAT BETTER DECISION WOULD HAVE BEEN TO HAVE EXERCISED MY STATUTORY OPERATION CTL AND UP-FUELED PRIOR TO DEPARTING ABERDEEN. FAILING THAT; AN AIR RETURN TO ABERDEEN WOULD HAVE BEEN SIMPLY A MATTER OF CONVINCING THE CREW OF THE ADVISABILITY OF CARRYING MORE FUEL AND AN ALTERNATE. I HAD THE AUTH TO STOP THE FLT AND I DIDN'T. SO; THE NEXT LOGICAL QUESTION IS 'WHY?' THIS WAS THE VERY LAST FLT OF THE NIGHT -- NOT JUST ON MY DESK; BUT FOR THE ENTIRE AIRLINE. IT HAD BEEN ANOTHER LONG; FRUSTRATING DAY OF WX EVENTS; ATC DELAYS (SOME UNDERSTANDABLE; SOME DUE TO MYSTERIES ONLY KNOWN TO CTR); BROKEN AIRPLANES; NO-SHOW CREWS; AND ENDLESS SWAPS. IT'S A VERY SHORT FLT -- TYPICALLY; THE WX YOU SEE OUT THE WINDOW IN ABERDEEN IS THE WX YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE GETTING UP TO JAMESTOWN. IT WAS WELL AFTER DARK -- THUS; ANY SPECTACULAR (AND THUS; FOR AIRCREWS; PARTICULARLY FRIGHTENING) LIGHTNING DISPLAYS WOULD HAVE BEEN IMMEDIATELY APPARENT. JUST BEFORE THE ABERDEEN DEP; I HAD COAXED TWO OTHER FLTS THROUGH SIMILARLY THREATENING WX -- ONE UP TO DEVIL'S LAKE FROM BRAINERD; ANOTHER TO THIEF RIVER FALLS FROM HIBBING. I 'INHERITED' A NUMBER OF FLTS FROM THE SHIFT GOING OFF DUTY AT XA00 -- THIS INCLUDED A TRIP; WHICH ALSO HAD BEEN RE-ROUTED TO CIRCUMNAV SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN WESTERN PA. WE ARE DRILLED TO TRACK DOWN FLT TIMES RELENTLESSLY -- AND I WAS ALSO CALLING AND RECALLING A HOTEL IN AN ATTEMPT TO REACH A FLT CREW MEMBER THERE WHO COULD PROVIDE ME WITH THE ON AND IN TIMES NEEDED TO CLOSE OUT THEIR TRIP.