Accident Flight
On December 30, 2016, about 1849 Hawaiian standard time, a Cessna 172M, registration N174LL, impacted water near Molokai Airport (PHMK), Kaunakakai, Hawaii. The flight was en route to Honolulu Airport (HNL), Honolulu, Hawaii. The private pilot and two passengers have not been located, and the airplane is missing. The airplane disappeared from Air Traffic Control radar after takeoff and is presumed to have crashed in the Pacific Ocean. The airplane was registered to Yamataka Kumiko and operated by Lani Lea Sky Tours, LLC under 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 as a personal flight. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed, and a visual flight rules flight plan was filed for the cross-country flight that departed PHMK at 1843.
According to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ATC radar data, shortly after departure from PHMK the airplane immediately started a shallow climb to the northwest. At 1848:28, the airplane began a descending right turn from a Mode C reported altitude of approximately 2,525 feet msl. The radar track ended at 1849:04, over open water approximately 1.5 nautical miles (nm) from the coast and about 7 nm northwest of PHMK.
Search and Rescue
At 1913 on December 30, the FAA issued an alert notice (ALNOT) for the missing airplane after ATC lost radar contact. A search and rescue effort by the United States Coast Guard began immediately but was suspended on January 2, 2017. To date, the missing airplane has not been located, and no emergency locator transmitter (ELT) signal was received during the search. Attempts to locate a signal from the pilot's cell phone using network-based location analysis were unsuccessful.
Pilot Information
The pilot, age 26, held a private pilot certificate with a rating for airplane single-engine land, issued on October 30, 2016. His most recent first-class medical certificate was issued on March 5, 2014, at which time he reported 1 total hour of flight experience. His FAA application for airman certificate indicated a total of 73 flight hours, 4 instrument hours, and 14 hours under the category "Night Take-Off/Landing." His personal flight logbook was not recovered.
According to an employee of the airplane rental facility, who also served as the pilot's flight instructor, the pilot reserved the accident airplane for the morning of the accident flight. He asked about "special instructions" related to a temporary flight restriction (TFR) active in the area. The pilot canceled his reservation due to weather, then rescheduled to 1700 and requested life vests. At 1515, the pilot and his girlfriend, a passenger, arrived at the rental facility. A third passenger then entered, and the representative retrieved an additional life vest. At 1545, the pilot completed a preflight inspection and departed on the flight to PHMK.
At 1810, the pilot text messaged the representative that they had landed "15 minutes prior." The representative interpreted this as a return, but the pilot confirmed he was still at PHMK. She suggested he stay with a friend if not night current; the pilot said he would "think about it." After the call, the representative received a call from a friend reporting that Honolulu Control Facility was looking for N174LL.
Aircraft Information
The airplane was a Cessna 172M manufactured in 1973 and registered to the owner on October 21, 2015. It was powered by a Lycoming O-320-E2D, a normally-aspirated, direct drive, air cooled, 150 horsepower engine. The most recent annual inspection was completed on December 28, 2016, at which time the airframe had accumulated 10,131.5 total flight hours. The engine had accrued 815 total flight hours since the most recent overhaul. The airplane was equipped with a TSO 126 ELT manufactured by Wulfsberg Electronics.
Weather Conditions
The pilot requested multiple weather briefings from Lockheed Martin Flight Services (LMFS) before and during the flight. He initially contacted LMFS at 1617 before departing HNL for PHMK but declined to receive adverse weather conditions. During a call at 1708, the briefer discussed an AIRMET Sierra valid along his intended route. The pilot contacted LMFS again at 1820 after arriving at PHMK, and the briefer referenced AIRMET Sierra again. At 1822, he received a text weather briefing that included AIRMET Sierra, METAR and TAF data for PHMK and HNL, the area forecast, and winds aloft information.
An automated surface observing system (ASOS) report at PHMK (elevation 453 feet, 7 miles east-southeast of the airport) issued 11 minutes before departure recorded wind from 010 at 11 knots with 19 knot gusts, 6 miles visibility, light rain, few clouds at 900 feet, broken ceiling at 1,600 feet, overcast ceiling at 5,500 feet, temperature 19°C, dewpoint 18°C, and altimeter setting 29.95 inches of mercury. At 1854, an ASOS report recorded wind from 030 at 12 knots with 18 knot gusts, 6 miles visibility, light rain, mist, scattered clouds at 900 feet, overcast ceiling at 1,600 feet, temperature 19°C, dewpoint 18°C, and altimeter setting 29.95 inches of mercury.
Two AIRMETs for mountain obscuration valid at the time of the accident were issued at 1713 and 1845. The 1713 AIRMET reported mountain obscuration on the north through east side of Molokai Island, and the 1845 AIRMET advised of temporary mountain obscuration above 2,000 feet due to clouds and heavy rain showers on the north through east side of Molokai Island.
An area forecast issued at 1714, valid at the time of the accident, forecasted few clouds above 1,000 feet mean sea level, scattered clouds at 2,000 feet, with a broken to overcast ceiling at 3,000 feet, tops at 10,000 feet, and light rain showers. Temporary conditions included broken ceilings at 2,000 feet with tops to 12,000 feet, visibilities between 3 and 5 miles with moderate rain showers. Isolated conditions included broken ceilings at 1,500 feet with tops to 15,000 feet and visibilities below 3 miles in heavy rain showers.