Accident details
The aircraft was on approach to Smolensk Airport in poor weather conditions. The crew executed three go-arounds and abandoned the approach each time. On the fourth approach, at a speed of 260 km/h, the aircraft descended below the minimum safe altitude, struck treetops, lost its left wing, and crashed in a large explosion.
Victims
All 96 occupants were killed, including Polish President Lech Kaczyński and his wife. The delegation was en route to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the Katyn massacre. Among the deceased were members of the Polish Senate and Government, a former president, the vice-president of the lower chamber, the vice-president of the Senate, the president of the central bank, the chief of military staff, the chiefs of ground forces, air force, special forces, and marines, the president's personal assistant, the chief of national security, and vice-ministers of defense and foreign affairs.
Probable cause
The official investigation determined that the immediate cause was the descent below the minimum descent altitude at an excessive rate of descent in weather conditions preventing visual ground contact, along with a delayed go-around execution. This led to impact with a terrain obstacle, separation of part of the left wing with aileron, loss of control, and ground impact.
Contributing factors included: failure to monitor altitude using a pressure altimeter during a non-precision approach; failure to respond to the TAWS PULL UP warning; an attempt to execute an automatic go-around under ABSU control; approach control confirming correct aircraft position relative to the runway threshold, glide slope, and course, which may have reinforced an incorrect belief; failure by LZC to inform the crew of the descent below glide slope and delayed level-out command; and incorrect training of Tu-154M crews in the 36 Regiment.
Conducive circumstances encompassed: incorrect crew coordination placing excessive burden on the aircraft commander in the final phase; insufficient flight preparation; inadequate knowledge of aircraft systems and limitations; poor cross-monitoring and failure to correct mistakes; inadequate crew composition for the task; ineffective supervision of flight training by the Air Force Command; failure to develop procedures for missed approach criteria, radio altimeter alarm values, and multi-crew duty distribution; and sporadic performance of LZC duties over the past 12 months, including a lack of practical experience at Smolensk North airfield.