Airbus forecasts fleet of 45,550 aircraft and 10 billion annual passengers by 2045

Airbus expects worldwide demand for aviation services to double from 2026, reaching an estimated value of more than 420 billion US dollars, or about 375 billion euros, by 2045. The company's Global Services Forecast, published on Wednesday, 14 October, puts average annual growth for those services at 3.8 percent over the period.

By 2045, Airbus says, the services will support a global fleet of 45,550 aircraft, counting passenger aircraft with 100 or more seats. Passenger numbers are expected to double to 10 billion a year over the same 20 years. That growth creates cumulative demand for 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1,050,000 cabin crew members, more than 2.44 million workers in total.

The forecast sets out six service segments. Off-wing maintenance is put at 217 billion US dollars in 2045, a 3.7 percent compound annual growth rate. Airbus says more shop visits for engines and components that must be removed will double its value as the fleet grows and ages, with materials and spare parts supply significant here.

Support for maintenance operations is forecast at 104 billion US dollars in 2045, a 4.3 percent growth rate. It covers timely, quality inventories and technical support to keep aircraft airworthy and reliable. On-wing maintenance is projected at 36 billion US dollars in 2045, growing 2.8 percent a year. It ranges from simple inspections to extensive checks and grows with the wider fleet. Airbus also names digitalisation and connectivity as a segment, with further figures in the full forecast.