EU proposes ETS allowances for airlines that forecast contrails

A proposed amendment to the EU Emissions Trading System would grant airlines free allowances if they build contrail-forecasting models into their flight-planning tools. The measure is part of a broader ETS review published in July. Reaction so far has focused largely on separate plans to extend the scheme to some flights beyond the European Economic Area.

The European Commission calls contrails part of aviation's non-CO2 climate impact, saying their environmental effect is at least as significant as the sector's carbon dioxide emissions. Contrails form in specific atmospheric conditions, when water vapour from engines condenses around soot particles and freezes. Persistent ones spread and merge into ice-cirrus clouds that trap heat.

Since last year, airlines have had to report non-CO2 emissions for flights within the EEA under the Monitor, Report and Verify programme. The new proposal would offer an incentive to go further, by forecasting where contrails are likely to form.

EU-based carriers could claim free allowances equal to 0.1% of their verified annual emissions if they make contrail forecasts available to their operations control centre or equivalent. That centre would be instructed to assess whether the forecasts are operationally viable and to use them when filing flights where possible. According to the source, operators would receive a further allocation equal to 0.02% of verified emissions.