Study: Corporate SAF certificate demand could rise sharply by 2030

Companies could support the use of 1 to 1.9 million tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel by 2030 by buying emissions certificates, according to a joint study by the aviation association IATA, Airbus and Accenture. The volume for 2024 is estimated at 323,000 tonnes. The certificates let companies attribute emissions reductions from SAF to their indirect emissions from business travel and air freight, even when the fuel is used elsewhere.

Only about 15 percent of surveyed companies currently take part in the market, the study found. Obstacles include high prices, unclear accounting rules and complicated purchasing procedures. The certificates usually cost between 150 and 500 dollars per avoided tonne of CO₂ equivalent.

Global SAF production for 2026 is estimated at only 2.4 million tonnes, or 0.8 percent of total kerosene consumption. SAF remains two to three times more expensive than conventional jet fuel.

The authors of the study are calling for uniform accounting rules, transparent verification systems and simpler purchasing options. Government support and additional production capacity are also needed, they said.