Circumstances
The pilot reported that while conducting a visual descent to land, the airplane's engine lost most of its power. In response, the pilot applied carburetor heat, but the engine subsequently lost more power. The pilot then decided to perform an emergency landing on a lake. According to the pilot, the lake was not long enough to allow the airplane to stop before contacting the shore.
Weather Conditions
Weather conditions reported at Kenosha, Wisconsin, located 14 miles east-southeast of the accident site, included an overcast ceiling of 200 feet, visibility of 1 mile, temperature of 52 degrees Fahrenheit, and dew point of 52 degrees Fahrenheit. According to the Department of Transportation/Federal Aviation Administration/CT-82/44 Publication: Light Aircraft Piston Engine Carburetor Ice Detector/Warning Device Sensitivity/Effectiveness, June 1982, Carburetor Icing Probability Chart, these conditions place the probability for carburetor icing in the "serious icing at cruise power" area of the chart.
Examination
Examination of the airplane revealed no anomalies.