Incident Overview
The pilot was conducting a cross-country flight under instrument flight rules (IFR). While deviating around thunderstorm activity, the airplane was cleared to its destination airport. Shortly thereafter, radar contact with the aircraft was lost.
Witness Account
A witness reported hearing an airplane overhead but could not see it due to haze and clouds. The witness described the engine noise as "revving in a cycling pattern." Within 10 seconds, the witness observed the airplane exit the clouds in a nose-down spiral, with one wing missing. The airplane then impacted Lake Erie nose first and sank.
Structural Examination
Examination of the right wing main spar revealed fractures consistent with an overstress separation and evidence of aft and upward loading.
Weather Conditions
The pilot obtained a weather briefing prior to the flight. At the time of the briefing, there were no current or forecasted thunderstorms around the destination airport, and no convective SIGMETs were valid for the area where the accident occurred. Review of weather radar data around the time of the accident revealed two very strong thunderstorm cells over the western portion of New York, along Lake Erie, moving northeast. The airplane disappeared from radar as it transitioned through the northern edge of one of the echoes, in reflectivity values near 25 dBZ, corresponding to very light intensity echoes. The GOES-12 visible satellite image depicted a large band of clouds extending over Lake Erie and New York, with several cumulonimbus clouds located immediately south of the accident site.