Flight Planning
A non-instrument rated pilot contacted a friend on St. Thomas and inquired about a flight to St. Croix to retrieve a family member. The friend advised that it would be possible. Later, the pilot called again and stated, "I can see St. Croix from my house," indicating he would fly himself. The friend expressed concern because the weather near St. Croix was described as "real bad."
Flight Operations
The pilot departed from St. Thomas and received VFR flight following. An air traffic controller asked if the pilot could navigate through the weather. The pilot responded that he did not have any weather at his current location, though he noted some lightning nearby, and described conditions as "pretty good." The flight was subsequently handed off to St. Croix tower. The tower controller inquired about the pilot's position. The pilot replied, "Roger we are level at (unintelligible) oh boy we're having some prob." This was the last transmission received.
Weather Conditions
Analysis of the weather revealed level 5 thunderstorms in the vicinity of St. Croix. The pilot likely encountered moderate to heavy rain in the minutes preceding the accident. However, when the airplane was lost from radar, the pilot was probably in light to moderate precipitation. Multiple cloud layers existed at and below 3,000 feet. After the accident, weather observations indicated winds gusting to 17 knots. The sun had set and twilight had ended before the accident. Given the weather data and absence of ambient light, there would have been no visible horizon, forcing the pilot to control the airplane solely by referencing flight instruments. The Airplane Flying Handbook states that "unless a pilot has many hours of training in instrument flight, flight in reduced visibility or at night when the horizon is not visible should be avoided."