Accident Sequence
After crossing the Mondi intersection inbound for an ILS runway 05 approach, the captain determined that a proper descent was not possible due to a strong tailwind and the aircraft's present altitude. The aircraft turned and proceeded outbound to lose altitude. The crew then established themselves again on the inbound course at an airspeed of approximately 120 knots. The copilot reported that around 300 feet "the bottom dropped out." The aircraft crashed onto the surface of a frozen cove and slid onto marshy terrain, coming to a stop about 500 feet short of the runway.
Weather Conditions
An NTSB weather summary indicated the following wind regimes during the approach: from 5,000 to 24,000 feet above sea level, wind from 220° at 50 knots; from 2,400 to 450 feet above sea level, wind from 180° at 30 knots; and from 450 feet above sea level to the surface, wind from 100° at 5 knots. Using an assumed approach airspeed of 123 knots, ground speeds were computed as 155 knots from 5,000 to 2,400 feet, 147 knots from 2,400 to 450 feet, and 118 knots from 450 feet to the surface.
Probable Cause
The official findings list multiple occurrences:
- Occurrence #1: In-flight encounter with weather during the approach phase (FAF/outer marker to threshold, IFR). Findings include dark night, low ceiling, fog, turbulence in clouds, downdraft, and windshear.
- Occurrence #2: Loss of control in flight during the same approach phase.
- Occurrence #3: Undershoot during uncontrolled descent.
- Occurrence #4: In-flight collision with terrain/water during uncontrolled descent. Terrain condition was icy.