New aircraft deliveries expected to stay constrained through 2030, forecast finds

Airlines waiting on new aircraft will probably keep waiting. Engine supply, supplier bottlenecks and certification holdups will constrain production until at least 2030, according to the aviation analytics company Cirium.

Cirium's annual fleet forecast, released on October 13, 2026, projected about 43,000 deliveries of commercial passenger and cargo aircraft between 2026 and 2045, valued at $3.2 trillion in 2026 prices. Those aircraft would let carriers grow their fleets and retire older equipment.

Demand is still firm, but growth now depends on how quickly the industry can hand over aircraft, said Stephen Burnside, global head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy.

The wait already costs money. IATA reported in June 2026 that carriers had not received more than 5,000 fuel-efficient aircraft they had expected by that point. The order backlog passed 18,000 aircraft, IATA said, and the average fleet age had climbed to a record 15.2 years. It put the cost of supply chain failures to airlines at no less than $11 billion in 2025, with fuel prices adding to the pressure.

With fewer replacements arriving, operators are holding onto older jets longer, paying more for maintenance and facing higher lease rates, while forgoing the fuel savings newer models would deliver. IATA cited engine durability problems, spare-parts shortages and tight maintenance capacity as further disruptions, and has called on manufacturers to flag delays earlier and widen the options for approved parts and repairs.

Even so, Cirium expects the global passenger fleet to pass 50,000 aircraft by 2045.