History of Flight
On January 11, 2023, about 1809 eastern standard time, a Piper PA-32R-301 airplane, N43156, was destroyed when it was involved in an accident near Dayton, Virginia. The pilot was fatally injured. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal flight.
According to radar and radio communication information obtained from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the pilot departed from Winchester Regional Airport (OKV), Winchester, Virginia, at 1739. The airplane then turned toward the southwest and established a flight track that roughly corresponded to a direct course between OKV and Shelby County Airport (EET), Alabaster, Alabama.
At 1741, the pilot contacted Potomac Consolidated Terminal Radar Approach Control and advised that he had departed OKV to the southwest, was climbing through 3,500 ft mean sea level (msl) for 6,500 ft, and requested and received visual flight rules (VFR) flight following services enroute to EET. About 1749, the pilot checked in with the Washington Air Route Traffic Control Center while flying level at 6,500 ft. At 1802, the pilot advised the controller that he was going to descend to 5,500 ft for a few minutes. The controller acknowledged and instructed the pilot to maintain VFR, which the pilot acknowledged. No further transmissions were received from the pilot.
ADS-B data showed that, about 1809, the airplane turned about 20° to the left from its previously established flight track to about 200° magnetic, as it continued to descend. The airplane’s last ADS-B-observed position was recorded at 1809:43, at an altitude about 4,100 ft. The controller broadcast that radar contact was lost about 1810.
Emergency services personnel located the wreckage of the airplane at 0330 on January 12th in the Maple Spring area of the Shenandoah Mountains. The accident site was located about 470 ft south of the airplane’s last ADS-B-observed position at an elevation of 3,980 ft mean sea level (msl).
Personnel Information
According to FAA airman records, the pilot held a private pilot certificate. He did not possess an instrument rating. Review of an excerpt of the pilot’s personal flight logs revealed that, as of December 30, 2022, he had accumulated 1,772 total hours of flight experience, of which 300 hours were at night. The logbook entries reviewed did not annotate experience in instrument meteorological conditions.
Meteorological Information
The 1755 recorded weather at Bridgewater Air Park (VBW), Bridgewater, Virginia, located about 13 miles southeast of the accident site at an elevation of 1,165 ft, included wind from 190° at 7 knots (kts), 7 statute miles visibility, a broken cloud ceiling at 3,800 ft above ground level (agl), a temperature of 4°C, a dew point of 1°C, and an altimeter setting of 30.13 inches of mercury.
The weather conditions reported at 1755 at Shenandoah Valley Regional Airport (SHD), Harrisonburg, Virginia, located about 19 miles southeast of the accident site at an elevation of 1,201 ft, were similar and included 10 statute miles visibility in light rain, an overcast ceiling at 3,800 ft agl, temperature of 3°C and dewpoint of 1°C.
A High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical model sounding for the vicinity of the accident site for 1800 depicted a near-surface temperature of 0.2°C, dew point temperature of -3.4°C, and relative humidity of 77%. The sounding depicted a frontal inversion from the surface through 1,913 ft agl (about 5,000 ft msl), where the temperatures increased with altitude and resulted in near-freezing temperatures at the surface and warmer air aloft. Analysis of the data supported a broken-to-overcast layer of nimbostratus type clouds from about 3,000 ft agl (6,200 ft msl) with tops near 17,000 ft msl, and supported the development of rain. Multiple freezing levels were identified from just above the surface, with temperatures at -0.2 to -0.4°C below 1,000 ft above the surface, with temperatures above freezing above this layer. The second freezing level was identified at 6,800 ft with below freezing temperatures above this level.
The wind profile for the sounding indicated southerly surface winds of 10 kts with winds veering to the west with height. A low-level wind maximum was identified around 5,000 ft with wind from 200° at 24 kts. At the accident airplane’s initial cruising level of 6,500 ft, the sounding indicated wind from 215° at 22 kts with a temperature of 0.5°C and a relative humidity near 92%. At 5,500 ft, the sounding indicated wind from 200° at 23 kts with a temperature near 1.5°C. The RAOB analysis program did not indicate any structural icing potential below 6,500 ft.
The NOAA GOES-16 infrared imagery for 1811 indicated an area of enhanced clouds over the accident site with radiative cloud top temperature of 239 Kelvin (-34°C), corresponding to cloud tops near 34,000 ft msl based on the HRRR sounding.
The closest NWS WSR-88D radar was located about 82 miles northeast. Base reflectivity for 1808 depicted echoes of less than 30 dBZ (light intensity) over the route where the pilot advised descending from 6,500 ft to 5,500 ft. No echoes were detected over the accident site.
The Graphic Forecast for Aviation (GFA), issued at 1400 and valid for 1900, depicted restricted visibility over the accident site with a greater than 60% chance of rain and southerly winds of 10 to 15 kts. The GFA cloud forecast for the same period depicted overcast clouds with bases at 2,800 ft and tops to 23,000 ft, consistent with mountain obscuration conditions.
A review of inflight weather advisories indicated that no SIGMETs, Convective SIGMETs, or CWAs were current surrounding the accident time. Two G-AIRMETs were issued at 1545 and were current over the route and accident site, warning of mountain obscuration and icing conditions.
The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for CHO, Charlottesville, about 40 miles southeast, expected wind from 270° at 3 kts, visibility better than 6 miles, ceilings overcast at 25,000 ft agl, with temporary conditions between 1700 and 1800 of wind from 170° at 4 kts, visibility 6 miles in light rain, and broken ceiling at 11,000 ft.
A search of the FAA contract AFSS provider, Leidos, indicated no contact with the pilot for weather briefings or flight plans. The vendor ForeFlight indicated the pilot had an account but had not filed a flight plan or created a “Flight.” The pilot had created several route strings before the flight and viewed airport data pages for EET, OKV, and HQU, which would have included surface observations, TAFs, and NOTAMs.
Sunset occurred at 1715 and end of civil twilight at 1745 on the day of the accident.
Wreckage and Impact Information
Examination of the accident site revealed that the airplane impacted trees on an approximate magnetic heading of 194° and came to rest about 520 ft from the initial impact point. The wreckage was highly fragmented. The left wing was impact-separated from the fuselage and fragmented. The right wing was separated at the root and about 3 ft from the wingtip, with semicircular impressions consistent with tree impact on the leading edge. The stabilator, rudder, and aileron control cables remained attached to their respective attach points and were separated consistent with overload.
The fuel selector was impact-damaged and in the “OFF” position. The gascolator bowl was impact fractured with no debris in the bowl or filter. The three-blade constant-speed propeller was separated from the engine, with spinner fragmented and blades exhibiting leading edge damage and S-type bending consistent with high engine rpm at impact. The engine was partially impact-separated from the mounts and sustained damage primarily to lower front accessories and bottom left side. The fuel injection servo was partially impact separated, with throttle and mixture cables attached. The fuel inlet screen was clean. The dual magneto remained secured, undamaged, and produced spark at all leads when rotated. The engine drivetrain rotated when force was applied. Thumb compression was established on all cylinders except No. 2, damaged in the rocker box area around the intake valve.
Several digital avionics devices were recovered but none contained non-volatile memory relevant to the investigation.
Additional Information
Review of the sectional aeronautical chart for the area revealed that the maximum elevation figure was 5,100 ft msl. According to the FAA Chart Users’ Guide, the MEF represents the highest elevation within a quadrant, including terrain and other vertical obstacles.
Medical and Pathological Information
According to the autopsy report from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, Commonwealth of Virginia, the pilot’s cause of death was multiple blunt force injuries, and the manner of death was accident. No significant natural disease was identified.
Toxicology testing by the FAA Forensic Sciences Laboratory detected cetirizine in blood at 71 ng/mL and in urine at 3,124 ng/mL. Cetirizine is a second-generation antihistamine, available over the counter as Zyrtec. It has some sedating properties. The therapeutic range is 190 to 1,450 ng/mL; elimination half-life is 6.5 to 10 hours. The FAA provides guidance on wait times before flying after using this antihistamine.