Cirium lowers 20-year aircraft delivery forecast to 43,000 units

Cirium has cut its 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries to around 43,000 passenger and freighter aircraft between 2026 and 2045. The projection is worth US$3.2 trillion in 2026 dollars, down from last year's estimate of 46,500 deliveries valued at US$3.4 trillion in 2025 dollars.

The consultancy said production constraints are tempering expectations even as long-term demand holds steady. It expects the imbalance between aircraft supply and demand to persist through the 2020s. Supply-chain bottlenecks, engine availability, extended certification timelines and cost pressures are restricting airlines' ability to expand and replace older fleets. Cirium added that higher fuel prices, geopolitical disruption and trade uncertainty could change the timing and regional spread of growth.

The global passenger fleet is projected to pass 50,000 aircraft by 2045, expanding at an average annual rate of 3.2%, just below last year's 3.3% figure. China, India and Asia-Pacific together account for about 48% of the modelled passenger fleet allocation.

Single-aisle jets make up 76% of that allocation, with the A321neo the largest individual aircraft series at 16%. Airbus accounts for 47% and Boeing 39% of modelled passenger fleet allocation, while COMAC represents 5%. Cirium noted that these figures describe fleet allocation and not future delivery market shares. Cargo demand remains resilient, the forecast said, supported by e-commerce and time-sensitive logistics.