SAF producer says large-scale output unlikely before 2040
A start-up developing sustainable aviation fuel expects commercial plants to be running in about 14 years, cautioning that meaningful volumes will not arrive before 2040. The company still calls IATA's 2050 net-zero target ambitious but not impossible.
Production of significant volumes of sustainable aviation fuel is unlikely before 2040, according to Aether Fuels, a US-based start-up working on next-generation SAF. The Chicago company's senior director of sustainability, Alyssa Norris Hanlon, said it will take a long time and substantial capital for SAF plants to meet large demand, and that the turning point comes in the 2040-2050 period.
Aether Fuels expects to have several commercial facilities operating by 2040 and anticipates signing more agreements with airlines soon. It is developing fuels based on flexible feedstocks, from industrial waste gases and captured carbon dioxide to gasified municipal waste, converted into liquid aviation fuel through the Fischer-Tropsch pathway.
Speaking at the IATA World Sustainability Symposium in Brussels on 14 October, Norris Hanlon described the industry body's 2050 net-zero goal as ambitious but not entirely undoable. That target rests on SAF meeting 65% of airline needs.
IATA said in June that hopes of reaching net zero were fading fast because of limited SAF supplies. It estimates global SAF production will reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, equal to 0.8% of global airline fuel use.
Norris Hanlon said regulatory policies meant to stimulate the market, including the European Commission's ReFuel EU mandate and Singapore's incoming SAF levy, are working, though the source notes EU sub-mandates for synthetic sustainable fuel.
Sources
- flightglobal.comTurning point on scaling SAF output unlikely before 2040, says producer